Talk about comprehensive. Neil Howe gives his opinion about everything he thinks will happen in this crucial year of 2016. He isn’t optimistic. He is in the midst of writing a new book called The First Turning. I hope we make it there.
Via John Mauldin
The Big Picture
January 2016 Report
All signs point to 2016 being a momentous year on every front, from the shuddering global economy to the stormy upcoming election season. How will the world look by year’s end? BP interviewed Saeculum Research Founder and President Neil Howe to get his take on what’s ahead. (This is an expanded version of the interview we published as a Social Intelligence report on January 6, 2016.)
Even as all sides – including the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and select rebel groups – pretend to be working towards a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution to the five year conflict in Syria, actions speak louder than words, and to put it as succinctly as possible, everyone is still fighting.
In fact, the fighting is more intense than ever. Russia and Hezbollah are closing in on Aleppo, the country’s largest city and a key urban center where rebels are dug in for what amounts to a last stand. If the city is liberated by the government (and yes, “liberated” is more accurate than “falls” because occupied territory belongs to the Syrian government, not to Sunni extremists), Assad will have regained control of the country’s backbone in the west.
Toto, I have a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore. Heck, we’re not even on the map.
In case you haven’t noticed, things are starting to get crazy out there. Not just economically (with another global contraction already well under way) or financially (with teetering European banks leading global stocks into volatile territory) or monetarily (with the global currency war reaching a rate-slashing crescendo) or geopolitically (with new Iranian/Iraqi/Russian cooperation in Syria throwing the NATO powers off balance), but even socially (with a sea change taking place in the American electorate, not to mention Europe, Latin America and elsewhere).
[...] Let’s take a look at three stories that show clearly that this craziness isn’t just a bit of turbulence, but a sign that we’re moving into a new paradigm altogether.
1) Negative interest rates
This week Sweden’s Riksbank became the latest central bank to surprise people with a negative interest rate slash. But this time, they weren’t going from a positive rate to a negative rate, but from a negative rate (-0.35%) to an EVEN MORE negative rate (-0.5%).
When celebrity investor Mark Cuban announces to the world that he is investing in gold, is that a sign that the ride up is just getting going, or that it has already peaked? The Gold Report reached out to long-time experts in the sector for a better understanding of what is moving the markets—negative interest rates, a topping dollar, Fed testimony, increased gold buying in China—and what that means for junior mining stocks in the coming months.
A lot of investors were turning back to gold in mid-February as an alternative to a larger stock market that didn’t seem to make sense anymore. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.6% in one day, falling below its August low and spooking the chart-watchers. “I think people are so confused about this market. Nobody really understands what’s happening, including me,” billionaire businessman Mark Cuban told CNBC’s “Fast Money: Halftime Report” on Feb. 11. “When traders don’t know what to do, they go where everybody is. And I thought that would be gold.” He then shared his recent purchase of gold call options, not as a hedge, but in anticipation of momentum pushing the price of the metal higher.
If someone were to ask us what year it was, we would probably politely answer that it was 2016, curious to find out whether the inquirer was a) very confused, b) had only recently awoken from a coma and was still unsure of his when-abouts, or c) was a time traveler who got temporarily lost.
In the unlikely case that we should find ourselves unable to remember the year with sufficient precision to ensure a reliable answer, we’d probably consult a calendar. We recently found out that a great many people actually seem to be uncertain about what year it is. Or at least many mainstream media appear to think so, as they have launched an intense awareness campaign.
At the end of this month, the Mises Institute will be hosting an event celebrating Murray Rothbard in honor of his approaching90thbirthday. Mises Weekends this week features a tribute to Murray by three scholars who knew him as both a friend and mentor: Dr. David Gordon, Dr. Walter Block, and Dr. Joseph Salerno. Recorded this past summer at Mises U, the three share stories from their experiences with Murray and the role he played in shaping their passion for Austrian economics, freedom, and peace.
Clinton just can’t quit him. Even as she is trying to outflank Bernie on his left, Hillary Clinton can’t help but stutter the name of Henry Kissinger. Last night in the New Hampshire debate, Clinton thought to close her argument that she is the true progressive with this: “I was very flattered when Henry Kissinger said I ran the State Department better than anybody had run it in a long time.”
Let’s consider some of Kissinger’s achievements during his tenure as Richard Nixon’s top foreign policy–maker. He (1) prolonged the Vietnam War for five pointless years; (2) illegally bombed Cambodia and Laos; (3) goaded Nixon to wiretap staffers and journalists;
Editor’s Note: There are some things in life you can’t predict…
In today’s Weekend Edition, Palm Beach Research Group founder Mark Ford argues that no one can know for sure when the next economic disaster will happen. Instead of trying to predict the unpredictable, Mark recommends ten steps you can take to make your finances “antifragile”…
How to Survive and Profit From Black Swan Events By Mark Morgan Ford
Several years ago Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan, came out with a bestselling book called Antifragile. You may have read it. If not, I recommend it. It’s one of those rare books that presents the reader with a feast of delectable ideas. I find myself savoring every page—as much as I might enjoy a bite at a dinner of prime rib, garlic mashed potatoes, and sautéed spinach.
Earlier this week we looked at the expanding triangle as a possible reversal pattern as it was testing the top rail with a beakout gap. The next two days saw the HUI decline back down to the top of the double bottom hump at 139 where it found support. Yesterdays price action took out the top rail of the expanding triangle again. Today the HUI backtested the top rail around the 155 area and is bouncing. There is no doubt the PM complex is overbought but we now have two possible reversal patterns in play. The double bottom which was the first pattern that showed itself and now the expanding triangle which has an odd number of reversal points, five, which makes it a reversal pattern instead of a consolidation pattern.
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