by Avi Gilburt
Let’s begin this week with a review of what we know, from a higher probability perspective, as it currently relates to the metals market. First, it is quite likely that lower lows will be seen later this year. Second, we will likely see a rally before we set up the drop to those lower lows.
However, what we lack is a high probability near term structure, which creates a large schism in our ability to aggressively trade the metals in the short term.
Based upon the greater probability patterns I have seen over the last few weeks, the market does not yet seem to be in a position which will take us to the lower low targets we have set years ago to mark the bottom to this metals correction.
Continue Reading at GoldSeek.com…
from King World News
With people around the world still nervously watching Greece and Ukraine, today King World News is featuring a piece from one of the greats in the business that includes Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and a major warning.
“In our early decades, the relationship between book value and intrinsic value was much closer than it is now. That was true because Berkshire’s assets were then largely securities whose values were continuously restated to reflect their current market prices.” — Warren Buffett, Berkshire’s Annual Letter
Continue Reading at KingWorldNews.com…
by Bill Holter
The revelation over this past weekend by Hypo Alpe-Adria has been called by some as Austria’s “Lehman moment”. This may very well be on a micro scale, I believe it to be the Credit-Anstalt moment on a macro scale. If you recall history, Austrian bank Credit-Anstalt was the first domino to fall in 1931 which spread across the globe and tipped the banking system into default mode.
There are many similarities to the world today as compared to that world of 1931. Debt had become prevalent leading into the stock market panics of 1929. Margin debt had exploded and caught many offside just as it did in 2007-2009. The more recent episode had even more leverage via the use of derivatives, I point this out because the “leverage ratios” are far higher today than they were 80 years ago.
Continue Reading at MilesFranklin.com…
by Conn Carroll
White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest confirmed Monday that President Obama is “very interested” in the idea of raising taxes through unilateral executive action.
“The president certainly has not indicated any reticence in using his executive authority to try and advance an agenda that benefits middle class Americans,” Earnest said in response to a question about Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) calling on Obama to raise more than $100 billion in taxes through IRS executive action.
“Now I don’t want to leave you with the impression that there is some imminent announcement, there is not, at least that I know of,” Earnest continued. “But the president has asked his team to examine the array of executive authorities that are available to him to try to make progress on his goals. So I am not in a position to talk in any detail at this point, but the president is very interested in this avenue generally,” Earnest finished.
Continue Reading at TownHall.com…
by Nick Cunningham
Are oil prices heading for a double dip?
The surge in shale production has produced a temporary glut in supplies causing oil prices to experience a massive bust. After tanking to a low of $44 per barrel in January, falling rig counts and enormous reductions in exploration budgets have fueled speculation that the market will correct sometime later this year.
However, there is a possibility that the recent rise to $51 for WTI and $60 for Brent may only be temporary. In fact, several trends are conspiring to force prices down for a second time.
Continue Reading at OilPrice.com…
by Sober Look
Back in September the idea that the Eurozone’s economy could potentially undergo a recovery (see post) was met with some skepticism. And yet here we are. The EuroStoxx50 index is up 14% for the year while the Dow is up 2.5%. We now see plenty of indicators showing strengthening economy in the euro area.
To begin with, the area’s credit conditions continue to improve as loan growth is about to turn positive for the first time since the middle of 2012.
[...] Corporate and household loan expansion, while still terrible relative to the U.S., is on the right path. This is particularly true after the conclusion of the ECB’s stress tests (which were a major source of uncertainty in 2013).
Continue Reading at FinancialSense.com…
by Michael Krieger
[...] It was just brought to my attention that prosecutors in the General David Petraeus case are suggesting two years probation and a $40,000 fine, rather than the one-year prison sentence his misdemeanor charge carries. If it were you or I, and the government didn’t like our political activities, the feds would undoubtably try to put us in a cage for as long as possible. Must be nice to be an oligarch. After all, insiders don’t jail other insiders. This is not a free country.
It’s not just Petraeus and other oligarchs either. Status quo minions often also receive special treatment for their tireless service to the plutocracy. You know, such as watching six hours per day of porn on the job.
Continue Reading at LibertyBlitzkrieg.com…