Real Estate Danger: Real Estate Cycle Shows Phase-3 Danger (Pt.1)

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A key component is understanding market cycles is recognizing long term patterns since they work the same with any asset.

Real Estate is now in Phase III and the bubble has begun to pop. This is a problem because 30% of the GDP (all the money that flows through the US economy) is tied to real estate.

The trend began its turn in 2018 and the hole in the bubble is now getting bigger, even as mortgage rates have plummeted. Both new and existing home sales continue to plummet. Market pundits cannot understand why these low rates have not inspired home sales. But what have they inspired?
Cash-out refinancing, as home become ATMs again. When the downturn accelerates and prices fall further, there is no nominal value to cushion the fall.

The inverted and widening yield curve tells us that the next recession is either imminent or has already begun. I believe it.


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