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Market Talk – July 11, 2018

by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics

Just when the markets started to rejoice in the fact that there had been no recent escalation of trade wars and then the silence is broken. Early in the Asian trading day the US released a list of additional tariffs which are assumed to total close to $200bn. This number has wobbled equities and put a renewed bid under government bonds. Shanghai and HSI (Hang Seng) were worst hit closing down -1.8% and -1.3% respectively. The Shanghai has been trading lower for much of the year and still remains in a negative longer trend for the foreseeable future. The Yuan has been moving weaker for the past month, but the pace is not sufficient to cover the equity slide. We see almost the opposite in India where the SENSEX is climbing but at the cost of the INR. Again, rumours that the RBI were supporting the currency helped towards the end of the day, which only stalled the weakening trend. Interesting price action in Japan as a weaker Nikkei and regional equities failed to inspire the dash for the Yen. Late in US trading the Yen continues to struggle and is now trading with a 112 handle. This looks as though the safe-haven bid is finally fading.

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