“Fade” the Little Guy For Profit

by Bill Holter
JSMineset

As many of you know, I worked in the brokerage industry as a stockbroker/branch manager for 23 years. During that time and the 10+ years since, I have seen the “herd” move(d) violently in tandem many times. For years, smart investors would discern what retail investors were doing as a group and do the opposite quite profitably. It has been said and I have to agree, “the little guy is almost always wrong, and wrong at the wrong time”. Fade the little guy, it is usually quite profitable!

We are again seeing this phenomenon as evidenced by the VIX trading at all time lows and huge capital betting on continued non volatility. This thought process has obviously been aided and abetted by central bank’s massive liquidity flows and “official” purchases of anything and everything to support amarkets. Just to point out, it is not so much the fault today of market participants as it is central banks for “fooling” them into their complacency.

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