Martin Armstrong – Dow 42,000

from Financial Survival Network

Since we started talking with Martin Armstrong years ago, he’s been adamant in his belief that the stock market was heading higher. And he’s been right. Perhaps it hasn’t gone up as fast as he expected, but it has continued to make new highs. He’s not backing down now. Businesses and the wealthy are putting their money into the market because they’ve lost confidence in governments around the globe. They believe their capital is safer in the stock market than in government bonds, the Euro, European Banks and elsewhere. Governments are on a rampage against the populace. It’s all about survival. In their current configuration, they cannot survive. They’re in an unsustainable death spiral. But rather than admit that and restructure, they have gone the route of confiscation and authoritarianism. In the long run it won’t work, but for now they’ve got nothing to lose.

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7 comments to Martin Armstrong – Dow 42,000

  • Red

    His calls are often about general, and large, economic events – so he puts himself on the line but these ambitious calls rarely come true.

    Ex. In 2013 he predicted the DOW would double by 2015. At the time of the prediction the DOW was approximately 14,000 – today (April 2016), it is at/near its high of 17,737.00. In 2014 he stated that $100+ crude oil was here to stay. Crude is now trading below $40. So both of these are way off base. Let’s take a look at some of his other miscue predictions:

    Forecaster Martin Armstrong calling for start to a Sovereign debt crisis 2015.75 – he means the 3rd quarter of 2015 but it did not and has not transpired… yet.

    August 25, 2011 – Martin Armstrong: Gold to Correct for 1-3 Quarters Before Resuming Uptrend – Gold was $1740 on that date, did correct lower – but never resumed, eclipsed or equaled that high 1-3 quarters after – nor has it 4.5 years later.

    June 1, 2012 – Martin Armstrong: Are Commodities Preparing for a MAJOR RALLY? Armstrong is still looking for gold to explode to the upside into 2015 due to the Sovereign Debt Crisis – in this case the exact opposite happened – Commodities essentially collapsed for the, almost, 4 years following his statement.

    November 2009 – “Martin Armstrong: Gold Headed To $5,000 And Beyond!” – 6 years later and no where near. That is not saying it can’t or won’t – just that without a date – it is a rather meaningless statement.

    April 19th, 2013 – “We elected Weekly Bearish Reversals in both metals with gold closing at 1397.2 and 2304.1. Gold closed also just below the Weekly Break line 1398.6. This is warning that the FAILURE to exceed Friday’s 4/19 high intraday, and a penetration of 1310, we are looking at a drop to $1158. Breach that, and we very well may see $907 in 2 weeks.” No chance. Before he said this Gold had dropped $200 in the month of April, 2013 but it ended about $90 higher after he made the statement and it did not reach or breach $1158 although the following month it came close. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 3 years later.

    Dec 2012 – “The metals will be taking off during 2013, Martin believes after the summer, going all the way to 2016. Major support is at 1570.” – Gold started December 2012 at $1720 and closed 2013 at $1205 – $1570 was not support and June (Summer), it went below $1200.

    Oct 2013 – Gold’s going to drop below $1000 – and here is an example of his flip-flopping from the previous prediction. Sub $1000 has not occurred even 2.5 years later.

    Aug 9, 2013 – “Martin Armstrong has come out with this shocker – Dow 32,000 by 2015! – needless to say this wasn’t even close to transpiring.

    In 2013 – regarding the above DOW call: “Gold will be a beneficiary too, but in 2015.” but later stated ”$650-910 price of Gold coming soon.” – so this is an extreme flip-flop and neither came close to fruition.

    September 14, 2014 – “Is Martin Armstrong Right on Sub-$1000 Gold?” – This seems to be a call that he is sticking with (see below), and I don’t disagree, but the timing has not proven him correct to date.

    More recently:
    “The metals will bottom on the Bechmark targets. Today, gold has collapsed again back down to the 1208 level. All the screaming, hollering, kicking, biting, and name-calling will not prevent gold from meeting its fate. You have to realize there should be a retest of the 1980 high just under the $1,000 mark. There is a risk of testing the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $680. That would probably finish-off the gold promoters for quite a while. I think even a break of $1,000 will make them look rather stupid. But that is what you need at the finale.

    Bottom line, Do your own research.


    • jj

      I have been a follower for years and the computer models are spot on. Firms pay huge sums of money to have access to them so Martin doesn’t give a lot out in public interviews as his clients simply don’t like it. You must pay attention to the reversal levels and that is where the magic is. For example lat July the models were forecasting that if gold did not close above the 1362 reversal level at July close this would indicate price weakness which will saw because the dollar strengthened. The models also forecast if gold did not close above this reversal level for August we would see more weakness. Price did not break the level at August close, Septembers close and the quarterly close which indicated more weakness and dollar strength. Gold went from this 1362 reversal level down to the 1240 reversal level. Price did not break the Octobers close nor the 1272 reversal level and gold dropped off a cliff while the dollar soared.
      Armstrong Economics is the largest financial consulting firm on the planet and his clients are a who’s who of the large multi-national firms and central banks. The five models track international capital flows and then inputs this into the largest financial database on the planet using algorithms based on the theory of PI. They also forecast social change as this always occurs when capital moves into or out of regions or countries. They forecast the Brexit outcome on the very day it happened and the models forecast this a decade before. They forecast the gold weakness, the dollar strength and the Dow rising. The models have forecast the Trump win. Years back they forecast the collapse of the euro and the EU and of course the sovereign debt crisis we are again seeing in the EU. The US collapse is after 2020 and by 2032 the country will already have broken up into five different regions.
      It is interesting that the military procurement site is forecasting the by 2025 the US population will have dropped from 321 million to 61 million and the GDP from over 18 trillion to 984 billion. This is caused by a war with Russia and China which causes a total economic collapse not only in the US but the west in general.
      I just read an article from Russia by a retire general and he sated because the of continued US and NATO buildup on Russia’s border, the buildup in Ukraine and in Syria, Russian submarines have place nuclear weapons all along the US coastlines on the seafloor and will be activated remotely causing a wave of radioactive water to flood the entire coasts. Just look at the demonization of both Russia and China by the MSM. They have set up alternative banking and financial systems so the Eurasian, BRICSA and the Shanghai trades blocks can fully functions when war arrives.

  • Danny B

    Red, those are excellent observations. My problem with Armstrong’s predictions is; he says that capital will flow into the stock market from the public sector. How is that going to happen when there are NO earnings in the stock market?
    The stock market is expected to lose $ 34 trillion on nominal wealth. (Hussman Funds)
    Armstrong just doesn’t focus enough on the effects of automation and thre global-mean-wage.

    • jj

      The S&P P/E ratio peaked in the 87 crash at 50/1, dot com bust 46.5/1 and in the 2008/9 crisis at 122/1. Today we are at only 24/1. Those that claim that the market is in a bubble are simply clueless. These are mostly people who are salesmen who market metals to consumers. This is their mantra. Get out of equities and buy metals. Total nonsense!

  • Red

    JJ, According to Shiller’s Price earnings ratios, It’s currently about 29.

    Below are the S&P P/E ratios. Maybe Armstrong doesn’t or can’t predict the amount of Keynesian government intervention that distorts the free market? Stock market is one of the most expensive ever according to these ratios.

    Mar 31, 2017 26.52 estimate
    Jan 1, 2017 25.54
    Jan 1, 2016 22.18
    Jan 1, 2015 20.02
    Jan 1, 2014 18.15
    Jan 1, 2013 17.03
    Jan 1, 2012 14.87
    Jan 1, 2011 16.30
    Jan 1, 2010 20.70
    Jan 1, 2009 70.91
    Jan 1, 2008 21.46
    Jan 1, 2007 17.36
    Jan 1, 2006 18.07
    Jan 1, 2005 19.99
    Jan 1, 2004 22.73
    Jan 1, 2003 31.43
    Jan 1, 2002 46.17
    Jan 1, 2001 27.55
    Jan 1, 2000 29.04
    Jan 1, 1999 32.92
    Jan 1, 1998 24.29
    Jan 1, 1997 19.53
    Jan 1, 1996 18.08
    Jan 1, 1995 14.89
    Jan 1, 1994 21.34
    Jan 1, 1993 22.50
    Jan 1, 1992 25.93
    Jan 1, 1991 15.35
    Jan 1, 1990 15.13
    Jan 1, 1989 11.82
    Jan 1, 1988 14.03
    Jan 1, 1987 18.01
    Jan 1, 1986 14.28
    Jan 1, 1985 10.36
    Jan 1, 1984 11.52
    Jan 1, 1983 11.48
    Jan 1, 1982 7.73
    Jan 1, 1981 9.02
    Jan 1, 1980 7.39
    Jan 1, 1979 7.88
    Jan 1, 1978 8.28
    Jan 1, 1977 10.41
    Jan 1, 1976 11.83
    Jan 1, 1975 8.30
    Jan 1, 1974 11.68
    Jan 1, 1973 18.08
    Jan 1, 1972 18.00
    Jan 1, 1971 18.12
    Jan 1, 1970 15.76
    Jan 1, 1969 17.65
    Jan 1, 1968 17.70

  • roberto

    I have followed his writings for years. Regarding the stock market you will never get a clear signal from this man. The outcome is always dependent on some price target the market has yet to reach. He is always kicking the can down the road and dangling the imaginary carrot in front of your nose.

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