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With DEFCON 3 Imminent, We Remain Bullish

by Rick Ackerman
RickAckerman.com

A month of tedious consolidation has set the stock market up for a seemingly likely push higher. The chart shown suggests the Dow rally could reach 20257, or possibly even 21101, over the next month or two. That last number has served as our bull-market lodestone for quite a while, and even a thousand-point dive would not negate it. However, that doesn’t mean we would relax if the Indoos were to break out above their narrow range of the last 30 days. In fact, we would raise the alert level to Defcon 3, since any kind of breakout at all, even a modest one, would increase the odds of a bull trap. The only way to identify it without getting taken down ourselves is to stay focused on the lesser charts, since every bear market in history has begun with an abcd downtrend on the one-minute chart. So will the next one, and that’s why the investment of time and patience that it will take to see the avalanche coming is worth it.

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