from Bill Still
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Good afternoon, I’m still reporting on Trump.
Donald Trump’s post-convention bounce in the polls appear to be huge. In the latest CNN/ORC poll, conducted after the Republican Convention and before the start of the Democrat Convention, Trump now leads Clinton by 5 points – 44 to 39% – in a 4-way race which includes Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
In the previous CNN/ORC poll which ended the day before the Republican convention started, Clinton held a 7-point lead over Trump, 49 to 42%. That’s a 12-point swing. Both nationwide polls interviewed about 1,000 people by telephone.
The latest poll was Trump’s best showing since last September.
Democrats and the MSM in general in the US seem to have their heads in the sand when it comes to Trump’s rising popularity and Clinton’s decline. This phenomenon was noted last Friday by statistician Nate Silver when he cautioned:
“Don’t think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It’s a close election right now.”
In a late-breaking Morning Consult poll, Trump even saw a big bounce with his most important demographic – women. Pre-convention, Trump had the support of only 36% of women. Afterwards it jumped to 42% – a 6 point bounce.
With independent women, the swing was even bigger. Pre-convention Clinton led Trump among independent women 33 to 31%. Post convention, Trump now clobbers among independent women 37 to 30 – a 9-point swing.
I’m still reporting from Washington. Good day.