When The Trend Breaks Out It Will Be A Huge Move
by Joe Duarte
The world, the markets, the polls, and life in general seems to be at a stalemate. That means that when the world decides on its next course of action, the move will be huge and will likely last for a long time.
The U.S. presidential election polls tell the tale of the tape as well as anything, right now. Sure, there are some polls that give Mr. Obama a nice lead. But few really believe that as the more reliable Gallup and Rasmussen polls are calling it straight even.
The polls that give Mr. Obama a big lead seem to have some statistical issues that are leading to that conclusion. There have been reports of significant sampling bias which have skewed the number of participants in the polls toward Democrats. And the formulas being used to smooth out the results are being overweighted toward the prior election, which had abnormally high Democrat turnout. So while Mr. Obama may still win the election, current polls should be looked at with some skepticism.