by Mike Shedlock
MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis
I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher.
When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months.
Let’s take a look at why.
US Manufacturing PMI
Markit reports PMI signals weakest manufacturing expansion in 11 months