12 Reasons US Recession Has Arrived (Or Will Shortly)

by Mike Shedlock
MISH’S Global Economic Trend Analysis

I am amused by the Shadow Weekly Leading Index Project which claims the probability of recession is 31%. I think it is much higher.

When the NBER, the official arbiter of recessions finally backdates the recession, May or June of 2012 appear to be likely months.
Let’s take a look at why.

US Manufacturing PMI

Markit reports PMI signals weakest manufacturing expansion in 11 months

Key points:

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